Joining Forces With The Enemy

The enemy in horse race betting is the bookmaker……or we could also say our biggest enemy is our own ignorance but that is a different matter.

In fact our own ignorance is probably a much bigger obstacle than the bookmaker when it comes to making money. The fact of the matter is that you cannot make a skilled betting organisation lose money.

 

That simply isn’t possible in the long term because they take vast amounts of money from the mugs. If a betting firm is struggling to make money then that is a turnover and expenses problem and not an edge problem or a problem in taking money from mugs.

The Enemy is Too Big

So you cannot defeat them in this area because they set the odds and the entire betting industry combined have some of the best odds compilers and inside contacts in the world.

The industry leaders with regards to certain markets are the firms that everybody listens to. So most firms simply wait until the leaders post their prices and follow suit.

The only way to beat these people is to either be betting at analysing the data to arrive at better odds or to have inside knowledge.

The first avenue is almost impossible for the majority of people but the second one involves being in certain places where you are in contact with people that have highly sensitive knowledge.

So if we do not fit into these two areas then how can we make money? Well the answer is that we need to think start thinking opposite to the mugs. Remember that the mugs lose and the mugs are who the betting firms take the money from.

The mugs operate in masses and think alike and act alike. If we think and act the same as they do then we are doomed and we become a mug ourselves.

They Can be Beaten

However the betting firms do deliberately place incorrect odds because one reason for why they price up a certain way is to do with where they think the mug money will go and how much of it.

So if the mugs will back a favourite at 1-3 when it should really be 1-2 then can you really blame a betting firm for making it 1-2?

So here the value isn’t in backing the horse at 1-3 because if the favourite is much shorter in odds then another horse has become value by having its odds lengthened.

Likewise you could lay the 1-3 on the exchanges if its correct theoretical price is 1-2. It isn’t easy to know what a correct theoretical price is in horse racing.

If you can see horses that are massively hyped and in the press all the time or horses that have been successful then the chances are that there will be a contraction in odds come the start of the race. As a rule that mad five minute period before the race starts can see huge price plunges on the hyped mounts.