How To Beat The Bookies When Betting On Horses

To beat the bookmakers then you are essentially not trying to beat the bookmaker but the other punters. How is it possible to beat somebody that will make a profit regardless of what they do? The fact is that the overwhelming majority of punters will lose money when placing bets on horse racing……this is a given as all betting firms make money from the vast majority of their clients.

Whether in some cases they make enough to cover overheads is a different matter. However there are basically two ways to beat the betting firms if we accept that the avenue of “arbing” has mostly been closed. The concept of “arbing” by the way was taking advantage of price differences on the same event.

Think Differently To Gain an Edge

You have to accept that you are not doing battle with the bookmakers but the other punters. The betting firms make money from the losing punters who probably number more than ninety five per cent.

So the first step is not to act like a losing punter which means in short…..don’t do what they do. The next step is to identify what losing punters do and not to emulate it. For example the average losing punter waltzes into his local bookies having studied the form and places his bet.

Little do they realise that the form that they have studied has been scant at best and the odds compilers have also studied the form in far more professional and intricate ways before they placed the odds.

So what makes you think that you can beat these people? Finding a probable winner in any event is a piece of cake……any fool would know the likely winner simply by finding what the favourite is.

You don’t need to be a football expert to know that Chelsea are likely to beat Norwich City at home in the league. However analysis of likely winners and losers counts for nothing without adding probabilities into the equation.

No Risk Equals No Market

Remember that if Chelsea were certain to beat Norwich at home then there would be no market. So this then brings us onto the likelihood of Chelsea beating Norwich and this takes us onto odds.

This is where having the most data gives you a great advantage and the odds compilers have vast quantities of it. The betting firms set the odds with a margin of error added that makes it difficult for the average punter to make money long term.

So to punt based on conventional form analysis is tough because you have to outperform professional analysts. This is a really tough task unless you happen to have inside information on a sporting event that the analysts couldn’t possibly have factored in.

The other way to beat the betting firms is to understand mass market psychology. This is because essentially the losing punters are what you need to be understanding because this is where the betting firms will be focusing their efforts.

When Rory Mcilroy blitzed the field in the 2011 US Open then the hype really took off and he became stupidly low for the following two majors of the Open and USPGA. The punters still piled into Rory but the smart money was in laying him.